THIRTY DAYS – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:   Thirty days to the Iowa caucuses.  People will actually vote.  From The Hill:

Presidential candidates are in an all-out sprint in Iowa with the caucuses only 30 days away.

Campaigns are sharpening their attacks, doubling down on time and resources spent in the state, and placing their final bets on the ad buys and infrastructure they hope will bolster their get-out-the-vote efforts.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a substantial lead in the polls, though Democrats are warning the front-runner against complacency. They point to the enthusiasm gap she faces against Bernie Sanders, who will be looking to marshal his substantial grassroots support in a state that sent Clinton’s 2008 hopes into a tailspin.

But most of the intrigue is on the Republican side, where 11 candidates are still vying for the party’s nomination. Political watchers are expecting a record GOP turnout at the caucuses, as well as a substantial winnowing of the field in the weeks that follow the Feb. 1 vote.

“Iowa doesn’t always define the race, but it can chop the field in half or at least thin the herd,” said Jamie Johnson, a long-time GOP operative in the state. “It will certainly separate the contenders from the pretenders and sling-shot some into New Hampshire while sending the rest home.”

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are presently jockeying atop the polls and are the consensus favorites among insiders in the state.

Cruz has been on a sharp upward trajectory, catching and in some polls passing Trump.

The Texas Republican senator has won the backing of some of the most influential conservatives in the state, including Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) and Christian leader Bob Vander Plaats, who has backed the last two caucus winners.

The state’s massive bloc of evangelical voters has been moving steadily into Cruz’s corner. He has raised tens of millions of dollars, impressed with his campaign organization, and will kick-off the new year with a six-day, 36-county “Cruzin’ to Caucus” bus tour across the state.

Still, one month is an eternity to carry a front-runner’s mark.

COMMENT:  I believe that Trump will eventually duke it out with one other candidate, either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.  But Rubio must start making more progress to keep him in the top tier.  There is always an outside chance that Chris Christie or Jeb Bush could slip in, but that chance gets more outside every day.

If Trump gets the nomination, it's more than likely that an independent candidate will emerge, and it might be a serious candidacy.  If Cruz is the nominee, the establishment will dislike it, but will have to go along.  He's a sitting GOP senator.  A great deal of attention will now turn to "electability," and that's when Rubio can make his move.  He is widely seen as the most "electable" of the top-tier Republicans.

January 2, 2016